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Does weather increase the number of crime events?

Before you dismiss this article with: “how on earth could the weather affect criminal behaviour,” I ask you to read a brief abstract of an article written for the British Journal of Criminology in 1990, by Ellen G. Cohn.

 

In studying the causes of crime, most criminologists have concentrated on traditional socio-demographic variables, such as age, sex, race, and socio-economic status. However, some researchers have investigated the influence of the physical environment on criminal behaviour. There is a recent theoretical basis for research into the influence of weather on crime: the situational approach, rational choice theory, and routine activities theory all suggest that weather could significantly influence crime rates and criminal behaviour.

 

In previous bioweather forecasts, you may have read about the likelihood that someone may become cranky or aggressive in certain weather situations. This is mostly the case on days when it is either hot or when the so-called ill winds blow. This does imply that heat and the ionisation of the atmosphere could play a role. Only a handful of studies are published on this subject and the majority have high temperatures as the most examined weather parameter.

 

There is, however, one study, that also implicates pollution as a trigger for criminal behaviour.

 

The study argues that toxic chemicals in the atmosphere and in the water supply can affect the human neurological control mechanism and removes the natural restraints to violent urges.

 

Another study compared police records with temperature records. It showed that the level of crime increases linearly with an increase in temperature, in particular crimes such as domestic violence, rape, and assault. Interestingly, the same study found no link between temperature and crimes against property.

It is unclear where the study was performed, as one would think that the number of burglaries should be higher during the summer months when open windows are more likely to invite unlawful entry to homes. Open windows may not have been an issue in this study, if conducted in a cooler region.

 

On that matter, an article published on the website of the Canadian Medical Meteorology Network supports the theory that burglaries increase during the summer months. It also contains a summary of several studies:

 

Long, hot summer days see an increase in rape, murders and burglaries

more family disturbances were reported when ozone levels were high,

the incidence of assaults were positively correlated with temperature but negatively correlated with wind speed and humidity levels.

violent crimes occurred more frequently on dry days that were preceded by high temperatures and low winds

 

As is the case with burglaries, the temperature can only be blamed indirectly when more violence occurs due to overindulgence in alcohol during summer barbecues or parties.

 

Can you imagine being stuck in traffic on a hot day and without air-conditioning? If the heat doesn’t get your blood boiling, perhaps a cloudy day will. A recent study asked university students to log their driving behaviour and then compared the responses with meteorological data. The result showed a four-fold increase in anxiety and irritability levels of the young drivers during cloudy days, and when compared to sunny days. No, we can’t blame road rage on clouds, but we can conclude that rage occurs more often in certain weather conditions.

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